Tuesday, August 3, 2010


As I mentioned on Sunday, it's really important that everyone get out and vote today against Prop C to help shape the national narrative for November. However, I thought it would be worth noting a couple of key benchmarks that can help evaluate the strength of various right-wing political movements as we get ready for the crucial 2010 Midterm elections in November.

First of all, Prop C proponents like Jim Durbin at 24th State have made it clear that their goal is 75% for the Prop C vote. That's a benchmark for evaluating how well the Right, and specifically the tea party, is able to organize. I personally don't think they'll be able to even get close to that number. Turnout will also be a key issue: if Missouri only has 25% turnout, is that really a strong number to base a national narrative on?

Second, as pointed out by FiredUp Missouri, Roy Blunt has stated that his goal for the Senate primary campaign is 65% of the vote. This already is a remarkably low number, considering that previous party favorites have often gotten well over 80% of the primary vote, but I wonder if Blunt will even be able to achieve this low number. If he gets less that 60%, it would definitely be in "Embarrassing" land. If he gets less than 50%, that would be a strong signal that the Missouri Republicans are not at all enthused about his campaign. I should also note that anything less than 60% would begin to raise serious questions about the fact that the St. Louis Tea Party, unlike the other tea parties in the state, refused to stand on their principles and support an actual consistent fiscal conservative candidate like Chuck Purgason.

Finally, I'll be curious to see how Ed Martin does against John Wayne Tucker in the Republican primary. Are Republicans in the 3rd District seriously so devoid of standards that they're willing to endorse the ethically-challenged GOP insider Martin over Tucker? We shall see.

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