Sloppy Polling Memo By Mason Dixon Says Akin's Getting Closer to McCaskill-Updated

Update: McCaskill campaign poll blows the Mason Dixon poll out of the water! (see below) A new poll paid for by the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, the Kansas City Star, and KMOV and conducted by Mason Dixon is out claiming that Senator Claire McCaskill is only leading Todd Akin by 2 percentage points. However, the polling numbers are strange and the memo, if not the poll itself, is very sloppy. As Brandon H notes, they spelled Jason Kander's name "Kandor:"

Brandon also pointed out that the memo used "Conservative Party" instead of the correct name "Constitution Party" on the question about the Presidential race. But what's really strange, and possibly a larger problem if the sloppiness goes beyond just the memo, is that the poll questions as written on the document asked about third party candidates by name in all of the races *except* the Senate race (h/t Alexandra). For example, here's the wording for the question about the Treasurer's race, which includes the Libertarian Party candidate:

On the other hand, for the Missouri Senate race, the question on the memo only lists Claire McCaskill and Todd Akin, despite the fact that Libertarian candidate Johnathan Dine has been polling at anywhere between 6 % and 9 % in recent polls:

Note that Dine is listed as getting 4% of the vote, so perhaps he was included on the original question (despite what the memo says), but 4 % is lower than his averages in other recent polls. I'll also point out that in the two most recent polls Todd Akin's unfavorables have been waaay over 50%. In a poll taken on Oct 17, Rasumussen found 62% of respondents had an unfavorable view of Akin. And on a poll conducted from Oct. 19 through 21, PPP had his unfavorables at 57%. But on the new poll, conducted only a few days later from Oct 23 to 25, only 42% of respondents viewed Akin negatively. So yeah, after Todd Akin said that women's bodies can magically shut down pregnancies from "legitimate" rapes, after suggesting that McCaskill was "unladylike" because she was aggressive at a debate, after comparing McCaskill to a "dog," not to mention his crazy policy positions, only 42% of Missouri voters have a negative impression of him? I have a hard time believing this poll ended up with a representative sample. Anyway, what's always important to note is that individual polls should never be taken as perfectly describing the elections. Polling averages are generally much more accurate, and every once in a while even a well-conducted poll will end up with an average that's off the mark. And if the race was really genuinely close, would the RNC be acting like this:

An NRSC spokesman said it is a keeping "a close eye on this race" and hopes Akin can win.... But two Republicans with knowledge of the situation said the committee has looked at the race several times in the aftermath of Akin's remarks and decided he is too far adrift of McCaskill for them to get involved with the contest. The committee has instead poured money into other states. The Republicans spoke on the condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the committee's decision-making.

Update:Scott Charton is tweeting out the results from an internal poll from the McCaskill campaign showing her with a lead of 53-39. And (cough cough) it shows Akin's unfavorable rating at 58%. So, if you're trying to decide which poll is more plausible, consider that the Mason Dixon poll requires us to believe that within a period of 3 days, 1 out of every 5 voters (20%) previously had an unfavorable opinion of Akin but then changed their mind. On the McCaskill poll, Akin's numbers stayed exactly where they have been in two other polls taken earlier this week.

Incompetent Akin Campaign Is Dialing Phone Numbers in Kansas

What's truly unique about Todd Akin among Republicans is not that he has offensive views or that he's completely clueless about science (although both of these are true).  It's that he's so amazingly bad at hiding his crazy views, and continues to act offensively when everyone knows he should be keeping his mouth shut.  Throughout the campaign, and particularly after Akin's "legitimate rape" comment, his campaign has exuded an aura of complete incompetence, and not just because of their never-ending stream of tone-deaf, offensive statements.  For example, after Akin's campaign spitefully leaked an email from the Post-Dispatch, the reporter Kevin McDermott said the following:

“I shared the top of it with the campaign in an effort to give them an opportunity to fully respond, not to allow them to hurl an incomplete story out there under my name,” McDermott wrote in an email to Roll Call. “Unfortunately, I assumed I was dealing with a professional.”

A letter to the editor in today's Kansas City Star provides further support for the idea that Akin's campaign is not being run by professionals:

Now I really have a reason to detest those automated political phone calls. I received a phone call from former Arkansas governor and current Fox News personality Mike Huckabee asking for my support for Missouri Republican Senate candidate Todd Akin.
Mr. Akin should be glad he could not hear my unladylike response. You see, I’ll never vote for Mr. Akin despite his calls to my home phone. 

I live in Kansas. 

Kathyrn Bach

Of course this is just one letter, but it certainly fits with a pattern of incompetence that permeates every single aspect of his campaign.

Todd Akin says McCaskill is "Like a dog" who "fetches" bureaucracy

Politicmo has audio of Todd Akin at a fundraiser tonight saying that Senator Claire McCaskill is "like one of those dogs" who "fetches" red tape and bureaucracy:

Here's the exact quote:

“She goes to Washington, D.C., it’s a little bit like one of those dogs, ‘fetch,’” he said. “She goes to Washington, D.C., and get all of these taxes and red tape and bureaucracy and executive orders and agencies and brings all of this stuff and dumps it on us in Missouri.”

I guess we should give Todd Akin the benefit of the doubt though, since he supports equal pay for women, doesn't accuse his opponent of not being ladylike just because she kicked his butt in a debate, and doesn't have insane views about pregnancy fueled by his religion fanaticism.  Oh wait, he actually doesn't support equal pay for women, said Claire McCaskill wasn't "ladylike" after he lost a debate to her, and claimed that women can magically shut down pregnancy in the case of "legitimate" rape?  Wow, he's got some real issues!

MIssouri GOP Insider Reveals Disdain for Party Base

A recent Columbia Tribune article about Akin included an amazingly honest quote from a Missouri GOP insider:

The anger at Akin is intense. With his refusal to step aside, they see serious damage to GOP chances in many races this year. "I, personally, and a lot of people like me, want to punish Todd Akin," one insider said. "This is about getting you freaking people out of our party."

In my opinion, the positions of the extreme religious Right are ridiculous and I can see why someone wouldn't want them "in their party." But of course, the reality is that Republicans do want them in the party, as they want them voting for their Big Business candidates like Mitt Romney. They just don't want them in positions of leadership or influence.  Hence, when a True Believer like Todd Akin gets elected, the GOP party bosses are quick to try to destroy him and push him out in favor of an insider like John Brunner or Ann Wagner.

The quote, I think, reveals a core truth about the modern GOP; it's controlled by the super-wealthy and Big Business who use social issues to manipulate hordes of people into voting against their own self-interest.  The Roy Blunts, Mitt Romneys, and "grassroots Ambassador" to Luxembourg Ann Wagners of the world run for office for the purpose of putting more money into their and their friends' pockets, and they manipulate evangelicals into thinking that they care about social issues. The Religious Right should have their own party, and they should try out their own views in the free marketplace of ideas, but there's really no reason for them to keep giving away votes to people who only want to plunder the middle class.

A Right To Life Without A Right To Eat

Todd Akin somehow thinks that no one has a right to food, even though they have a right to life: 

And shame on you, Mr. or Ms. Commie, for thinking otherwise.

A New Level Of Cynicism From Todd Akin

I'm pretty sure there was a time in politics where people at least attempted, to some small degree, to have their claims at least remotely line up with reality and with their previous comments.  This is no longer true of the modern GOP.  For any documented negative consequence of their policies, they will simply spend millions of dollars on ads accusing the Democrats of doing the same thing in hopes of muddying the waters enough that low-information voters will simply shrug their shoulders and look for other reasons to vote for one candidate over the other.

Todd Akin has now taken this strategy to a new low.  Despite the fact that he claims that Medicare is unconstitutional, he's up with new advertisements, he's up with a new ad claiming that he's fighting to "protect and strengthen Medicare" and  claiming that Senator McCaskill is trying to weaken it.  It's the absolute height of cynicism, and shows clearly how little Akin thinks of voters.

On the other hand, Akin at least stood by his comments that offering students loans to go to college is "stage 3 cancer of socialism," saying he was "calling a spade a spade." But of course, in GOP minds, his standing by this comment now doesn't really matter at all.  If they decide this is a bad issue for them, they'll just drop a few million on ads next week claiming that "Akin is working hard to protect student loans, while Claire McCaskill destroys them."  They think Missouri voters are too stupid to know the facts.  I hope we prove them wrong.

Today In Crazy Things Todd Akin Actually Believes

Todd Akin thinks student loans are part of a "stage 3 cancer of socialism:"


Students loans are not like cancer.  They're not even like a hangnail, or a headache. They have been a godsend to millions of people, and are a crucial component of keeping the United States economy going forward in the modern age.  But then, Todd Akin doesn't really seem to be of the modern age, does he?

Photo via the Post-Dispatch.

h/t Politico.

Todd Akin's Dangerous Plans for Social Security

h/t Fired Up Missouri (on Twitter)

See also: the Roll Call story.

Todd Akin's Sketchy Ties

Christian Supremacists and militias.

New Ad on Akin's Extremism

Pretty effective ad from the McCaskill campaign:

Guy Who Said Conservatives Should "Kill The Claire Bear" Can't Figure Out Why Democrats Think Akin's Views Are Outside the Mainstream

When we last heard from St. Louis-based tea party activist Scott Boston, he was telling a Missouri tea party audience the following about Senator McCaskill:

“She walks around like she’s some sort of Rainbow Brite Care Bear or something but really she’s an evil monster.” “We have to kill the Claire Bear,” he added.

This prompted additional security at Senator McCaskill's events and a harsh rebuke from the Post-Dispatch.

Today, as you can see from the above tweet, Boston is absolutely shocked about a Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee email that stated the following:

From his record to his rhetoric, everything about Todd Akin’s Tea Party policies are outside of the mainstream and dangerous for Missouri families.

Noting first that the email was referring to Todd Akin's policies, rather than "conservatives," why would anyone think that Akin's policies are "dangerous" and "outside the mainstream"?  Well, aside from the fact that Akin refused to condemn Boston's "kill the Claire Bear" comments, here are a few reasons:

• The Hill: Rep. Todd Akin (R-Mo.) voted against the creation of a national sex offender registry and against reauthorizing a program that assists runaway and homeless children.
• On CSPAN: In March 2011, Akin said he doesn't like Social Security. "Now, Social Security through the years, for many, many people, has been a terrible investment. It's really a tax, that's all it is. Social Security is a tax. The government has taken the tax. There's been more money coming in than going out. And we spend it. That's not been responsible. I don't like it. I didn't design Social Security. It actually came from Bismarck, FDR put it in place." [CSPAN Washington Journal]
• Fired Up Missouri: ...when giving an interview to Greg Knapp on KCMO, republican extremist Todd Akin stated that he would ban emergency contraception because he "believes it is abortion," and he would ban it for everyone, with no exceptions.
• The Washington Post: In 2012, Akin was one of 24 to vote against the Training and Research for Autism Improvements Nationwide Act; 147 Republicans voted for it. A GOP press release described this as an effort to “advance training and education for autism service providers” so that “autistic children and adults can lead fuller, happier and healthier lives.”
• And: In 2010, Akin was one of only 13 to vote No on a motion “expressing the support of the House of Representatives for the goals and ideals of the National School Lunch Program.” 155 Republicans voted for it.
• And: In 2009, Akin was one of 11 to vote against a measure “expressing the sense of the House of Representatives that providing breakfast in schools through the National School Breakfast Program has a positive impact on classroom performance.” 152 Republicans voted for it.
• Buzzfeed: Missouri Senate candidate Todd Akin drew fire from fellow Republicans in the '90s for praising a private militia group associated with extreme anti-abortion actions, according to a 2000 St. Louis Post-Dispatch article.
• Mediaite: Rep. Akin, a veteran and father of three Marines, clues us in about his confusion on the issue with very inarticulate language:

  There is a misunderstanding. If people are gay, they can serve in the military now. It’s just that they can’t allow their ‘gayness’ to get in the way of getting the mission done.

I could go on, but life is too short.

So yeah, even if you don't think that conservatives are "dangerous" and "outside the mainstream" you certainly have reasons for thinking that Akin's policies are.

Danforth Doesn't Seem to Think Akin Can Appeal To Independents

Fired Up Missouri reports on former Senator John Danforth's comments about Todd Akin to the News-Leader:

“Akin is pretty scary to a lot of mainstream Republicans,” [Kenneth Warren, a political science professor at St. Louis University] said, pointing to Akin’s habit of lacing his speeches with religious references, among other things. That can put off business-minded Republicans, not to mention independents. 

Former Sen. John Danforth, R-Mo., is a case in point. Asked whether Republicans would unite around Akin now that the primary is over, Danforth said: 

“The real question isn’t divisiveness among rock-ribbed Republicans — the real question is, who is going to be able to appeal to the independents and the undecideds and the more centrist voters. I think that really is going to be the challenge for both congressman Akin and Senator McCaskill.” 

Asked whether Akin could or would make a successful pitch to those [independent and centrist] voters, Danforth said: “I just don’t know.”

John Brunner's Favorite Candidate Pat Buchanan Ousted From MSNBC Over Racist Book

MSNBC, after years of pleading, has finally gotten rid of Pat Buchanan because of racially-charged language in Buchanan's latest book. Buchanan, as pointed out by Think Progress, has a long history of bigotry, and included chapters in his book titled, "The Death of White America," and "The Death of Christian America."

But the local angle is that despite Buchanan's long history, Republican Missouri Senate candidate John Brunner has been a huge supporter of Buchanan. Brunner was Buchanan's state campaign chair when Buchanana ran for president, and donated thousands of dollars to his campaign, even when Buchanan jumped from the Republican Party to the Reform Party. Check out Progress Missouri for all the gory details.

Todd Akin Campaign Falsely Claims Paul Ryan Endorsement

Earlier today, it was reported that Paul Ryan (the Republican who wants to end Medicare as we know it) endorsed Todd Akin in the GOP Primary. Then it was reported that Ryan didn't actually endorse Akin, but was just saying that he thought he was a swell guy. Reporters chalked this up to some creative wording on Akin's press release. However, it turns out that it wasn't just "creative wording;" members of Akin's staff falsely claimed that Ryan had endorsed Akin.

Here's Akin's Political Director explicitly claiming that Ryan had endorsed Akin:

And here's her profile:


The Republican Senate primary in Missouri is almost as much of a circus as the Presidential primary, and that's saying something.

Todd Akin Refusing to Meet With Constituents About Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security

Message from Jobs with Justice:

Come join us at a community townhall meeting with Congressman Todd Akin.

After weeks of outreach and requests for meetings, Congressman Todd Akin still refuses to meet with his constituents and community about our concerns regarding Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security. In the meantime, he has continued to take votes that would drastically cut those programs and cost Missouri jobs.
But we want to ask him, "Rep. Akin, Whose side are you on?"

So Missouri Jobs with Justice and allies have asked him to join us at a community townhall meeting just one block from his office.

The event will be Wednesday, August 24, 4pm at 300 Weidman Rd, Ballwin, MO 63011.

KMOV Unsuprisingly Misrepresents McCaskill's Comments

KMOV, which enjoys running lazy hit pieces on defenseless food stamp recipients, claims they were "surprised" to find out that Senator Claire McCaskill disagreed with President Obama's position that unemployment benefits should be extended. What is not surprising, however, is that KMOV got the story completely wrong and failed to provide an accurate description of McCaskill's position. Here's what KMOV quoted McCaskill as saying:

MCCASKILL: I’m not for extending unemployment benefits any further. The payroll tax cut, I’m always for tax cuts for working folks, because I think that helps our consuming economy.

But, the Huffington Post's Arthur Delany, who unlike KMOV apparently knows enough about the issue to ask follow-up questions, found out that McCaskill actually agrees with the President's position:

Claire McCaskill actually DOES support keeping extended benefits, like Obama wants, her office says. She's against MORE weeks

Now I suppose it'd be easy to just claim that KMOV, being a TV news organization, is just too darn busy to understand the issues enough to accurately describe McCaskill's position, but on the other hand they have a long history of grinding an ideological axe, including:

The aforementioned hit pieces on food stamp recipients.

Ignoring rallies of 4,300+ union supporters while doting on the tea party.

Lazily attacking stimulus funds being used for important research.

Getting angry at Wash U students after they refused to pay $20,000 for abstinence lessons from Bristol Palin.

So I hope you'll forgive me for thinking that KMOV is now far beyond the point of deserving the benefit of the doubt.

Update: I called it correctly. KMOV got the story wrong:

McCaskill's office says additional context omitted from KMOV's report would show that she was responding to a question about giving the unemployed extra weeks of benefits. Her office said she supports preserving the existing extended benefits.

Also, they haven't issued a correction. Lame.

Loesch Publicly Humiliates Steelman Campaign

Dana Loesch attacked the Sarah Steelman campaign over Twitter and Facebook today because they misspelled "athletes:"

Steelman staffer Lucas Case responded by saying he's never seen so much hate "toward fellow conservatives:"

Loesch responded with her typical childish antics:

But as Case pointed out, why didn't Loesch just send an email rather than making a big scene about it?

Naturally, Loesch described this suggestion as "trying to crush dissent even from the right:"

Wait, did she just say "Right?" Oh dear...

Important Rally at Senator McCaskill's Office Friday to Protect the Federal Budget

The main weakness of Todd Akin and Sarah Steelman is that they will be forced by extremists in the Republican Party to demand cuts to Medicare, Social Security, and other programs that people rely on for their well-being. But this is only a weakness if Senator McCaskill stands up for these programs and the wishes of the vast majority of the population. So this rally I just heard about sounds like a great idea:

We are rallying to persuade Senator McCaskill to meet with community stakeholders regarding the current proposed federal budget.

Friday, June 17 4-5 pm Senator McCaskill's office 5850 Delmar Ave., St. Louis 63112

The current proposed federal budget has massive cuts to vital federal public services, programs including Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security and to public employee wages. We must fight to protect critical health and retirement programs.

This event is sponsored by Missouri Jobs with Justice, American Federation of Government Employees (AFGE), Missouri Health Care for All, Missouri Pro-Vote, The Missouri Budget Project, and Metropolitan Congregations United.

We will ask Senator McCaskill to oppose any legislation that will continue tax breaks for the very rich and big corporations at the expense of federal workers and the services they provide. Missouri's veterans, farmers, and working families depend on government services, such as Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and others. A cut to the federal budget and workforce is a cut to Missouri! Join us in asking Senator McCaskill to stand strong against the proposed cuts to Federal Services!

Bring your friends, neighbors, family and co-workers - people you know who benefit from Federal programs

If you can't make the rally, you can send McCaskill a message here.

Sarah Steelman Afraid To Endorse Paul Ryan's Extremist Plan

Fired Up Missouri has a post up that indicates that Sarah Steelman might be getting nervous about the massive unpopularity of Republican Paul Ryan's plan to eliminate Medicare as we know it. Not only is Steelman afraid to endorse Ryan's plan, she also comments that she's specifically concerned about Medicare. Check out her comments:

I think it’s important for people to understand that we need to protect what our commitments are today and honor those and look at look at how we can reform these programs in the future. Because these people did pay into Medicare.

Most people are thinking that Paul Ryan's plan is going to be damaging to Republicans in 2012, but it will be interesting to see how it plays out in Republican primaries, especially considering that Akin has bragged about helping to craft the plan.

The Akin/Ryan Plan to Phase Out Medicare

For some reason, in the wake of the decisive victory by Democrat Kathy Hochul in the blood red Republican district NY-26, I feel like it's a good time to remind people that Republican Senate candidate Todd Akin voted for Paul Ryan's plan to phase out Medicare as we know it. In fact, he not only voted for it, he bragged about helping to craft the plan:

I had the privilege of being part of the process of crafting this budget.

And given that Akin is so proud of his role of helping to craft the plan to get rid of Medicare, I think we should do him the honor of renaming it the Akin/Ryan Plan to Phase Out Medicare.

h/t Fired Up Missouri